No trade is a sure win. Anything can happen in trading. Trade setups may look perfect but could instantly reverse on the next candle. An open trade may be very profitable one moment yet could still end up losing money if not managed well.
So, if no trade is a sure win, then how do traders make money?
Trading is all about probabilities. It is about having a trade setup that if traded again and again, would be profitable in the long run. Although some trades may be winners and some losers, trades should be winning more often than they are losing. It could also be that winning trades earn more profits than losing trades are losing money. It may also be a combination of both, trades are winning more often with bigger profits than losses. It all boils down to having a good win rate and a good reward-risk ratio. Have the right mix of both and you would be profitable.
There are many ways to trade the market with high probability or with high reward. Traders could use a proven pattern that could earn profits in the long run. Others trade on technical indicators that give them an edge.
One of the best ways to find a high probability trade setup is by trading on confluences. Confluences are scenarios wherein several factors point towards the same trade direction at almost the same time. It is like having the same advice from different sources. Although these advices would not always be right, but the probability of being wrong may significantly decrease.
Winner ADX Trend Forex Trading Strategy trades on confluences coming from high probability indicators. It trades on retracements occurring during a trending market condition, which is also a high probability trade setup.
Advanced ADX
Advanced ADX is a momentum indicator based on the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX).
The classic ADX is a unique indicator because it was developed to identify trend direction and the degree to which the market is trending. Traders could identify not only the direction of the trend but also if the market is actually trending or not.
The Advanced ADX takes all this into account and provides trade signals accordingly. It is a simple histogram bar which changes color every time the indicator detects a trend change. Green bars indicate a bullish trend while red bars indicate a bearish trend.
The length of the bars also indicates the strength of the trend. Bars that are getting longer indicate a trend is strengthening, while bars that are getting shorter indicate a weakening trend.
AFL Winner
AFL Winner indicator is an oscillating indicator which helps identify trend direction.
This indicator oscillates in a range between 0 to 100 and is displayed as bars. Bars that are touching 100 indicate an overbought market while bars that are touching 0 indicate an oversold market.
The bars also change colors to indicate the direction of the trend.
This indicator behaves much like Stochastic Oscillator. It naturally identifies short-term trends and provides trend reversal signals accordingly.
Trading Strategy
This strategy is a trend following strategy that provides trade signals based on the confluence of the Advanced ADX and AFL Winner indicator.
Trades should be taken only when the market is trending. To objectively identify the market trend, we will be using the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The trend will be based on the slope of the 50 SMA line, as well as the location of price in relation to the 50 SMA line.
Signals are then taken whenever there is an exact confluence between the Advanced ADX and AFL Winner indicators.
On the Advanced ADX indicator, the bars should change color indicating the direction of the trend.
The same thing applies on the AFL Winner indicator. The bars should change indicating the direction of the trend. The bars should also be coming from an overbought or oversold condition to indicate that the trade came from a retracement. This would mean that the bars touched the top of the range or the bottom of the range.
Indicators:
- 50 SMA (Green)
- advanced_adx (default setting)
- afl_winner (default setting)
Preferred Time Frames: 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour and 4-hour charts
Currency Pairs: major and minor pairs
Trading Sessions: Tokyo, London and New York sessions
Buy Trade Setup
Entry
- Price should be above the 50 SMA line.
- The 50 SMA line should be sloping up.
- Price action should exhibit a bullish trend.
- The Advanced ADX bars should change to green.
- The AFL Winner bars should change to lime coming from the bottom of the range.
- These bullish signals should be aligned.
- Enter a buy order on the confirmation of these conditions.
Stop Loss
- Set the stop loss on the fractal below the entry candle.
Exit
- Close the trade as soon as the Advanced ADX bars change to red.
- Close the trade as soon as the AFL Winner bars change to red.
Sell Trade Setup
Entry
- Price should be below the 50 SMA line.
- The 50 SMA line should be sloping down.
- Price action should exhibit a bearish trend.
- The Advanced ADX bars should change to red.
- The AFL Winner bars should change to red coming from the top of the range.
- These bearish signals should be aligned.
- Enter a sell order on the confirmation of these conditions.
Stop Loss
- Set the stop loss on the fractal above the entry candle.
Exit
- Close the trade as soon as the Advanced ADX bars change to green.
- Close the trade as soon as the AFL Winner bars change to lime.
Conclusion
This trading strategy works very well on a trending market condition.
The key to trading this strategy correctly is in finding markets that are in a real trend. This would be based on a visual identification of a trending market. It would also be confirmed by having Advanced ADX bars that are mostly indicating the direction of the trend with just temporary changes in color during retracements.
This strategy is a high probability strategy. Trades should win more often when used in a trending market. However, there are cases where the market would provide huge gains in a single trade. This combination of a decent win rate and reward-risk ratio allows traders to be profitable in the long run.
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