Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculate the average value per outcome from an entered win rate, average win, average loss and optional cost. You can also analyze a signed outcome sample while preserving the observations entered. Results describe the selected assumptions or sample; they do not forecast future performance.
Enter one comparable outcome set
Keep the win, loss, sample and cost values in one consistent unit.
A display label only. The calculator performs no currency, pip or risk conversion.
Use the same unit as the outcomes. Leave blank for zero.
After-cost arithmetic
Performance Expectancy model 1.1.0.
How is trading expectancy calculated?
Trading expectancy is the average value per outcome implied by the inputs. In two-outcome mode, multiply the win probability by the average win and subtract the loss probability multiplied by the average loss.
When the averages are gross before costs, this model subtracts the same entered cost from each winning branch and adds it to each losing branch. Because every resolved outcome incurs the cost once, the scenario expectancy falls by exactly that cost per outcome.
Sample mode subtracts the entered equal cost from every signed outcome when gross mode is selected, then divides the adjusted total by the number of observations.
How to use the expectancy calculator
- Choose a two-outcome assumption or a signed outcome sample.
- Select gross when the values exclude costs, or net when the values already include them.
- Choose one display unit and keep every win, loss, sample value and cost in that same unit.
- Enter the required values. Use positive win and loss magnitudes in assumption mode; use signed values in sample mode.
- Review the baseline, cost impact, after-cost result and the interpretation boundary together.
Worked gross and net examples
| Input basis | Arithmetic | After-cost output | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross assumption: 55% wins; 150 average win; 100 average loss; 5 cost | 37.50 baseline − 5.00 cost | 32.50 per outcome; profit factor 1.688 | The average win becomes 145 and the average loss becomes 105. |
| Gross sample: 120, −80, 0, 60, −40; 5 cost | 60 entered total − 25 total cost = 35; 35 ÷ 5 | 7.00 sample mean | The entered zero remains recorded but becomes −5 after cost. |
| Equivalent net sample: 115, −85, −5, 55, −45 | 35 net total ÷ 5 | 7.00 sample mean | No separate cost is applied because the values already include it. |
The gross and equivalent net samples return the same mean. If they do not, the cost basis or entries are inconsistent.
Which outcome unit should you use?
The model is unit-agnostic. You may enter account-currency amounts, pips, points, percentage points, pre-calculated R values or generic units, but every value in one calculation must use the same unit. The selector only formats the result; it does not convert currencies, prices, pips or initial risk.
Average-loss units divide the after-cost result by the after-cost average loss. They are not automatically R-multiples. A genuine R-multiple requires each trade outcome to have already been divided by that trade's initial risk.
What the sample statistics show
Sample mode reports the arithmetic mean and sample standard deviation. NIST defines the sample mean as the sum of observations divided by their count, and the usual sample standard deviation with an N − 1 denominator. See the official NIST measures of location and NIST measures of scale.
Subtracting one equal cost from every observation changes the mean but not the standard deviation. The page does not calculate a confidence interval or assess independence, stationarity, selection bias or regime changes.
Performance and execution limits
- A result from entered assumptions describes that scenario only; a result from entered outcomes describes only that sample.
- Profit factor is after-cost positive contribution divided by the absolute after-cost negative contribution. It is unavailable when there is no negative contribution.
- Uniform cost is a simplification. Actual spread, commission, financing, slippage and execution effects can vary by trade.
- The calculator does not project the result across a future number of trades, rate a strategy or recommend a position size.
The CFTC cautions that hypothetical results have limitations and may not reflect liquidity, execution and other market effects. It also warns that trading-system presentations can omit relevant costs. See the CFTC's trading-system advisory and contract-obligations advisory.
Frequently asked questions
- In assumption mode it is the probability-weighted average value implied by the entered win rate and average outcomes. In sample mode it is the arithmetic mean of the entered signed outcomes after any separately applied equal cost. Neither result predicts future performance.
- Choose gross outcomes and enter one non-negative equal cost per outcome. The model subtracts it once from every assumed or observed outcome. Choose net outcomes when the values already include costs; no additional cost is then applied.
- Use gross when your averages or sample values exclude the costs you want to model. Use net when those costs are already deducted. Do not enter net values and subtract the same costs again.
- An entered 0 remains recorded as an entered zero and stays in the sample count. If gross mode applies a positive cost, its analyzed after-cost value becomes negative by that cost amount.
- Yes, if every outcome and cost uses the same already-prepared unit. The selector changes only the display label and does not convert prices, currencies, pips or initial risk.
- It is the positive after-cost contribution divided by the absolute negative after-cost contribution. It is shown as unavailable when the entered scenario or sample has no negative contribution.
- Standard deviation needs individual observations. A win rate plus two average amounts does not reveal the variation within wins or losses, so assumption mode does not invent it.
- No. It means only that the entered arithmetic is above zero. Later outcomes, cost levels, execution conditions and the underlying outcome distribution can differ.
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