Risk-On / Risk-Off Meter
Compare a fixed growth-sensitive currency basket with a fixed defensive basket across dated ECB reference-rate observations. The 0–100 result is a transparent FX proxy—not live, market-wide sentiment and not a trading signal.
What the risk-on / risk-off meter shows
The meter describes whether AUD, NZD and CAD are relatively stronger or weaker than JPY, CHF and USD inside one eight-currency, two-date sample. A value above 59 means the growth basket leads this model; below 41 means the defensive basket leads; 41–59 is broadly balanced.
How to use this FX basket proxy
- 1Choose a calendar lookback
Select 1D, 1W, 1M, 3M or YTD. The source supplies available daily observations at the requested boundaries.
- 2Confirm both source dates
Read the earlier and later observation dates before interpreting the score, especially after weekends and holidays.
- 3Inspect the basket components
Compare the two basket averages and all eight currency scores. Do not treat the headline number or AUD/JPY change as an entry instruction.
Risk-on / risk-off meter workspace
Two dated rate matrices · two governed models · one descriptive basket comparison.
Currency scores behind the meter
Ranked within this observation sample. EUR and GBP affect normalization but do not enter either basket average.
Risk-on / risk-off meter bands
The labels describe only the fixed basket result. They are not probabilities and do not establish a global market regime.
| Index | Model label | Arithmetic meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 80–100 | Growth basket strongly leads | Growth average exceeds the defensive average by about 60–100 score points. |
| 60–79 | Growth basket leads | Growth average exceeds the defensive average by about 20–59 score points. |
| 41–59 | Broadly balanced | The difference does not move the rounded index outside the central band. |
| 21–40 | Defensive basket leads | Defensive average exceeds the growth average by about 20–59 score points. |
| 0–20 | Defensive basket strongly leads | Defensive average exceeds the growth average by about 60–100 score points. |
How the FX basket proxy is calculated
Currency-strength model 1.0.0 derives 56 directed cross-rate changes from two complete USD reference-rate sets. It averages seven comparisons for each currency, then min-max normalizes the eight averages to scores from 0 to 100. Basket model 1.0.0 applies the fixed memberships shown above.
defensive average = (JPY score + CHF score + USD score) ÷ 3
proxy index = round[50 + (growth average − defensive average) ÷ 2], clamped to 0–100
- Relative scale: 0 and 100 identify the weakest and strongest currencies in this specific sample, not probabilities or universal extremes.
- Fixed membership: EUR and GBP remain in the eight-currency normalization but are excluded from both basket averages.
- AUD/JPY: its percentage change is shown separately as an observable cross-rate change; it does not validate the index.
- Fail-closed rule: no result appears unless both dated matrices are complete, positive and distinct.
Worked example: a balanced result near the upper boundary
Assume the strength model returns AUD 72, NZD 61 and CAD 55, while JPY is 48, CHF 44 and USD 40. The growth-basket average is (72 + 61 + 55) ÷ 3 = 62.67. The defensive-basket average is (48 + 44 + 40) ÷ 3 = 44.00.
The index is 50 + (62.67 − 44.00) ÷ 2 = 59.34, which rounds to 59. Under model 1.0.0, 59 remains broadly balanced. The example is fixed arithmetic, not current market data or a forecast.
Data source, freshness and limitations
The adapter requests daily exchange-rate observations attributed to the European Central Bank through Frankfurter v2. These are reference observations—not executable broker quotes, bid/ask prices or intraday ticks. The result displays both observation dates so a weekend, holiday or unchanged source date is visible.
- European Central Bank — euro foreign-exchange reference rates
- ECB Data Portal — official API overview
- Frankfurter — documented exchange-rate API
Min-max normalization can magnify small differences when all raw currency changes are close together. Basket membership and band thresholds are declared product assumptions. The proxy excludes equity, bond, credit, volatility, commodity and positioning data, so it cannot establish market-wide sentiment.
Frequently asked questions
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It describes which fixed FX basket has the higher average relative-strength score in the selected two-date sample. AUD, NZD and CAD form the growth basket; JPY, CHF and USD form the defensive basket. It is not a direct measure of global market sentiment.
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Currency-strength model 1.0.0 scores eight currencies. Basket model 1.0.0 calculates 50 plus half the difference between the growth-basket and defensive-basket averages, then rounds and clamps the result to 0-100.
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The fixed growth-sensitive basket contains AUD, NZD and CAD. The fixed defensive basket contains JPY, CHF and USD. EUR and GBP affect the eight-currency normalization but are excluded from both basket averages.
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It is the observed AUD/JPY percentage change between the same two daily reference-rate dates. It is displayed separately and does not prove a market regime, validate the basket index or recommend a trade direction.
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The page requests data when it loads, when you select a lookback or when you choose Refresh source. The underlying ECB reference-rate source normally publishes once per business day, so repeated requests may return the same current observation date.
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ECB reference rates are daily business-day observations. Weekends, holidays and publication timing can make the latest available observation older than the current calendar date, which is why both source dates remain visible.
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No. It is a descriptive fixed-basket proxy that excludes many markets and trading conditions. No score authorizes an entry, exit, currency-pair direction or position size.
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