Forecast Oscillator Indicator for MT4

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Introduction to the Forecast Oscillator Indicator

The Forecast Oscillator was developed for the purpose of forecasting probable price movements using the concept of a linear regression.

It does this by providing momentum reversal signals using the crossing over of its main oscillator line, which is based on linear regression, and its corresponding signal line.

What is the Forecast Oscillator Indicator?

This indicator plots a turquoise colored oscillator line which is characteristically very jagged and responsive to price action swings. It is then paired with a green signal line which is characteristically very smooth and tends to shadow the main oscillator line well.

In this preset, this indicator plots a blue dot below the lines to indicate a bullish momentum reversal and a magenta dot above the lines to indicate a bearish momentum reversal.

Forecast Oscillator Indicator for MT4

How the Forecast Oscillator Indicator Works?

This indicator uses a complex formula which is similar to a linear regression of prices based on historical bars to somehow forecast the price movements of the preceding bars. This formula then plots the main oscillator line. It then computes for the signal line which is somewhat similar to a weighted moving average of the main oscillator line.

The indicator then plots the dots whenever it detects crossovers between the two lines indicating a possible momentum reversal.

How to use the Forecast Oscillator Indicator?

This indicator has three variables within its indicator settings which adjusts its sensitivity.

The “regress” variable adjusts the sensitivity of the main oscillator line (turquoise line). The higher the input number, the less jagged it becomes. The lower the number the more sensitive the indicator becomes.

The “t3” variable adjusts the smoothness of the signal line (green line). The higher the number, the smoother the signal line becomes.

The “b” field adjusts the range of the oscillation of the main line. The higher the number, the tighter the oscillations become.

How the Forecast Oscillator Indicator Works

This indicator can be used as a momentum reversal signal indicator as intended using the blue and magenta dots as signals. However, the signals produced might not be accurate when traded against a strong trend. As such, it is best to use this indicator in confluence with the trend direction.

Buy Trade Setup

When to Enter?

Identify an uptrend market based on price action. Allow price to pullback and cause the turquoise oscillator line to dip below the green line. Open a buy order as soon as a blue dot appears below the lines. Set the stop loss on the support below the entry candle.

When to Exit?

Close the trade as soon as price action shows signs of a bearish reversal.

How to use the Forecast Oscillator Indicator - Buy Trade

Sell Trade Setup

When to Enter?

Identify a downtrend market based on price action. Allow price to pullback and cause the turquoise oscillator line to breach above the green line. Open a sell order as soon as a magenta dot appears above the lines. Set the stop loss on the resistance above the entry candle.

When to Exit?

Close the trade as soon as price action shows signs of a bullish reversal.

How to use the Forecast Oscillator Indicator - Sell Trade

Conclusion

This indicator might seem too erratic when traded in market conditions with tight price action oscillations with no clear trends. However, it does work well when traded in a trending market in the direction of the trend. It may also work when traded in markets with wider oscillations where false signals are lesser.

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